{"id":8323,"date":"2025-10-15T13:00:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T13:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/crypto-bull-run-ahead-powell-just-telegraphed-end-of-qt\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T13:00:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T13:00:21","slug":"crypto-bull-run-ahead-powell-just-telegraphed-end-of-qt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/crypto-bull-run-ahead-powell-just-telegraphed-end-of-qt\/","title":{"rendered":"Crypto Bull Run Ahead: Powell Just Telegraphed End Of QT"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says Jerome Powell has effectively signaled the wind-down of the Federal Reserve\u2019s quantitative tightening program\u2014an inflection he argues has historically unlocked altcoin outperformance and could underpin the next broad crypto rally.<\/p>\n

In a video<\/a> analysis posted yesterday, Kevin framed Powell\u2019s appearance at the National Association for Business Economics forum yesterday as unusually balance-sheet centric and tantamount to advance guidance: \u201cThis man came out today and literally sat there and spoke about the balance sheet the entire time\u2026 he telegraphed\u2026 we\u2019re probably going to end the quantitative tightening program in the coming months.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added, \u201cThe Fed telegraphs what they\u2019re going to do with monetary policy\u2026 they don\u2019t want to come out in surprise rate cuts or surprise rate hikes.\u201d Several experts like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes and Walter Bloomberg confirmed the interpretation via X.<\/p>\n

\n

There you have it, QT is over. Back up the fucking truck and buy everything. pic.twitter.com\/kQbpBSOlOU<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 14, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

FED\u2019S POWELL: MAY BE APPROACHING END OF BALANCE SHEET CONTRACTION \u2018IN COMING MONTHS\u2019<\/p>\n

\u2014 *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 14, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Start Of The Crypto Bull Run<\/h2>\n

Kevin\u2019s core claim is unambiguous: durable altcoin cycles have required a neutral or expanding Fed balance sheet, and QT has marked their demise. \u201cWe know the correlation between the Fed\u2019s balance sheet and durable altcoin outperformance is literally one-to-one\u2026 That\u2019s it. That\u2019s the correlation. It\u2019s one to one. It\u2019s 100% hit rate,\u201d he said, pointing to a multi-year chart of \u201ctotal others versus Bitcoin\u201d that he has tracked \u201cfor years.\u201d According to his read, every time QT has started, altcoins have entered a bear market against BTC; when the balance sheet has shifted to neutral or QE, \u201caltcoin season is able to occur.\u201d<\/p>\n

The timing around last week\u2019s violent cross-market liquidation reinforced his thesis, in his view. Kevin noted that \u201cas soon as we see a 70\u201380% crash on altcoins on their USD pairs and then total others versus Bitcoin taps this major support level\u2026 three days after that, Powell comes out and telegraphs\u2026 we\u2019re going to end [QT] in the coming months.\u201d He stopped short of alleging intent\u2014\u201cI don\u2019t like to go down the rabbit hole of manipulation\u2026 it just seems a little odd\u201d\u2014but argued the macro liquidity pivot now appears in sight: \u201cAll we know is that the Fed did telegraph that they are going to be ending QT, and that should be happening either by the end of the year or first thing next year.\u201d<\/p>\n

While his macro read is overtly constructive, Kevin emphasized he is not trading it blindly. \u201d In practice, he is waiting for validation across two pillars: Bitcoin\u2019s higher-timeframe moving averages and the USDT dominance structure.<\/p>\n

On Bitcoin, he repeated a rule he has used across cycles: \u201cAnytime Bitcoin has lost the 2-day 200 SMA and EMA, the cycle was over. Anytime Bitcoin has lost the 50-week SMA on the weekly time frame, the cycle was over.\u201d He located the current \u201ccycle validators\u201d around the rising band that, on his charts, spans \u201c$102,000 to $96,500,\u201d with $98,000\/$96,000 the approximate line in the sand. \u201cIf you break $98K, slash $96.5K on multiple weekly closes\u2026 the cycle\u2019s probably over,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The stablecoin gauge\u2014USDT dominance\u2014remains his market metronome. Kevin described a \u201cclassic textbook macro descending triangle\u201d in USDT.D with a \u201cflat bottom\u201d near \u201c3.9%\u20133.7%\u201d and lower highs into two-week moving averages. \u201cThere\u2019s a 70\u201380% chance that this descending triangle ends up breaking down and crypto goes higher,\u201d he said, cautioning that a minority of such formations do break up. \u201cI don\u2019t plan on doing a thing until it does break\u2026 I ain\u2019t going to be the guy who sat here this entire time tracking this incredible pattern\u2026 and then deviate away from it now.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"USDT<\/p>\n

What To Watch Now<\/h2>\n

Beyond liquidity, Kevin addressed the perennial four-year-cycle debate head-on. By his dashboards\u2014ROI since halving, ROI since cycle bottom\u2014\u201cyou\u2019re at the end of the cycle\u2026 the four-year cycle\u2019s over.\u201d But he argued that macro still governs whether price must top on schedule.<\/p>\n

Running a \u201cprocess of elimination,\u201d he said the backdrop does not currently resemble 2021\u2019s inflation shock or a clear earnings\/bubble unraveling, though he acknowledged exogenous risks such as renewed US\u2013China tariff escalation. \u201cUnless something macro-related durably tops this market, there\u2019s still a chance that it goes higher,\u201d he said. \u201cCrypto is not invulnerable to the macro\u2026 all markets are literally tied one-to-one to the macro. Period.\u201d<\/p>\n

Technically, he remains cautious on breadth. He highlighted persistent weekly bearish divergences on Bitcoin, Total2 (large-cap ex-BTC), and Total3 (ex-BTC, ex-ETH), and the failure to secure decisive weekly closes above \u201c120K\u2013125K,\u201d which, in his words, produced \u201ctwo weekly reversal candles [and] a monthly reversal candle\u201d and \u201clower highs in the weekly RSI.\u201d The August-to-present message, he said, has been consistent: \u201cBe cautious\u2026 If you\u2019re in altcoins from way lower, take some profits\u2026 Don\u2019t buy anything right now\u2026 wait for a resolution.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the QT call is the pivot he\u2019s watching most closely. \u201cWe are at a critical stage in the history of crypto\u2026 I want a definitive answer.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.79 trillion.<\/p>\n

\"Total<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says Jerome Powell has effectively signaled the wind-down of the Federal Reserve\u2019s quantitative tightening program\u2014an inflection he argues has historically unlocked altcoin outperformance and could underpin the next broad crypto rally. In a video analysis posted yesterday, Kevin framed Powell\u2019s appearance at the National Association for Business Economics forum…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8324,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[104,103,33,36,2296,60,32],"class_list":["post-8323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-altcoin","tag-altcoins","tag-bitcoin","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market-news","tag-crypto-news","tag-cryptocurrency-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8323"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8323\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinscap.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}