News

A strong buy signal not seen since 2022 just flashed on Ether, but the altcoin needs to hold above a key price level to avoid invalidating the pattern.

Key takeaways

• The transaction is projected to generate over $1 billion in gross proceeds, with money coming in from Ripple, SBI, Pantera Capital, Kraken and GSR
• The filing estimates that the merged firm will hold around 473 million XRP at launch

Evernorth, the XRP-focused digital asset treasury firm backed by Ripple Labs, filed a Form S-4 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) on Wednesday, bringing its ambitions of going public on the Nasdaq one step closer to reality.

The S-4 is a document companies are required to submit to the SEC when registering shares connected to a merger or acquisition. For Evernorth, which announced plans to go public last October through a tie-up with special purpose acquisition company Armada Acquisition Corp. II, the filing marks the last major regulatory gate it needs to clear before a potential listing under the ticker XRPN. Even with SEC approval in hand, the deal will still require a green light from Armada II shareholders before it can formally proceed.

The financial backing behind the merger is substantial. The transaction is projected to generate over $1 billion in gross proceeds, with money coming in from Ripple, SBI, Pantera Capital, Kraken and GSR. The overwhelming majority of those funds are intended to grow the company’s XRP holdings, with the remainder going toward operating and transaction costs.

Evernorth did not wait for the listing to start building its position. The company accumulated 473.27 million XRP across two separate purchase windows between October 20 and November 4 last year, bringing its total treasury value to approximately $692.24 million based on CoinGecko data.

The S-4 filing estimates the merged entity will hold at least that volume of XRP when it launches, supplemented by further open-market buying funded through merger proceeds. At an average entry price of $2.54 per token, the portfolio is currently underwater. XRP is trading around $1.47 at the time of publication, putting the drawdown at roughly 19% over the past three months as the wider crypto market has struggled.

The SEC filing arrives against a backdrop that has shifted meaningfully in XRP’s favour on the regulatory front. A day before Evernorth’s announcement, the SEC published guidance stating that generally only tokenised securities remain “subject to the securities laws,” with XRP listed among a set of tokens categorised as digital commodities. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Avalanche and Aptos were also included in that grouping.

Meanwhile, Ripple’s chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty took to X to comment on th development. “We always knew XRP wasn’t a security – and now the @SECGov has made clear what it is: a digital commodity. Grateful to the Crypto Task Force for working to deliver the clarity that markets, investors, and innovators have long deserved.”

Quick Take: Bitcoin price today sits at $74,272 inside a $73,500–$74,500 range. The crypto fear and greed index reads 26 (Fear). Spot BTC ETF inflows hit $2.8 billion in March. Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting is the next major catalyst.

The Bitcoin price opened the March 18 session near $74,272, stuck inside a razor-thin band that has capped every move for three straight days. Crypto traders worldwide are watching a single event: the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting scheduled for March 19. Whatever Jerome Powell says about rising oil prices and sticky inflation tomorrow will almost certainly decide whether BTC breaks out or breaks down from this consolidation. For anyone holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, or altcoins, the next 36 hours are the most important of the month.

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What Is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index Telling Us?

The crypto fear and greed index dropped to 26 today, sitting firmly in “Fear” territory for the second consecutive week. Yet the Bitcoin price refuses to fall. That kind of divergence is one of the most reliable setups in crypto trading. When retail sentiment crumbles but sellers cannot push prices lower, smart money is usually accumulating underneath. Spot Bitcoin ETF flow data confirms this reading: nearly $2.8 billion has entered BTC funds since March 1, creating a structural price floor that simply did not exist during the 2022 bear market.

Trading volume has fallen 12% below its seven-day average, while the weekly BTC range has tightened to just 1.3%. Historically, compressed ranges at this level snap within 72 hours and produce 4–6% directional moves. The question is not whether volatility returns. It is which side gets the volume.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, and Key Levels

The 4-hour RSI reads 52, which is dead neutral and tells us neither bulls nor bears control momentum right now. Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average at $73,500 has acted as a reliable bounce zone three separate times in March alone. A daily close below that line with expanding sell volume would be the first real breakdown signal since late February. On the upside, the $74,400–$75,000 area has flipped from previous support to strong resistance after last week’s failed rally above $75,900.

Ethereum Price Today and Altcoin Market Update

The Ethereum price today stands at $2,335, up 35% from its 2026 low and quietly building bullish momentum. Six consecutive days of positive spot ETH ETF inflows have pushed cumulative net flows past $11.8 billion. BlackRock’s ETHB staking-enabled fund is attracting capital that sat on the sidelines for months, and major players like Citadel, Jane Street, and Goldman Sachs are now among the top holders. The ETH/BTC ratio holds above 0.0312, a threshold that has historically preceded altcoin season rotations.

Among today’s top crypto movers, TRON leads with a 2.68% gain, followed by Ethereum at 0.71% and Solana at 0.45%. Four out of five major movers are trading green, which signals a subtle but meaningful shift in crypto market sentiment heading into the Fed decision.

How Will the FOMC Meeting Impact Bitcoin Price?

Historically, Bitcoin has dropped after seven of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, establishing a clear sell-the-news pattern that traders need to respect. With rates expected to hold steady, the real market mover will be Powell’s commentary on oil-driven inflation and the updated dot plot projections. Crude oil trading near $97 per barrel complicates the Fed’s narrative, and any hint that rate cuts are pushed further into 2027 could trigger a 2–6% correction in BTC within 48 hours.

Today’s Crypto Trading Setup

Bullish Entry: A 4-hour candle close above $74,500 with volume expansion. Target $76,500, stop loss at $73,200. Risk-to-reward ratio: 2.5:1. This trade needs a dovish or neutral FOMC tone to work.

Bearish Entry: Short below $73,400 on breakdown volume. First target $71,000, extended target $69,000. Stop loss at $74,200. This setup activates if Powell delivers hawkish forward guidance.

Swing Trade (Highest Probability): Skip the FOMC whipsaw entirely. Wait 4–6 hours after Powell’s press conference for direction to emerge. Dollar-cost average into BTC below $71,000 or ETH below $2,200 on any post-FOMC dip. This remains the cleanest risk-adjusted play for March.

Bottom Line for Crypto Traders

The Bitcoin price is coiled, the crypto fear index is screaming fear at 26, and a Fed rate decision sits 24 hours away. These exact conditions have produced the sharpest monthly moves throughout 2025 and into 2026. Whether you trade the breakout above $75K or buy the dip below $71K, standing still while volatility compresses this tightly is the only guaranteed losing strategy. Manage your risk, set your levels, and let the FOMC hand you the trade.

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XRP has been the sleeping giant of this cycle. After rocketing to a multi-year high near $3.50 in late 2025, Ripple’s token has spent all of 2026 grinding lower in a textbook descending channel.

The good news? History says March is XRP’s strongest calendar month — and right now the chart is coiling tight. If you’re holding XRP or thinking about a position, this is the breakdown you need.

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Where XRP Stands Right Now (March 16, 2026)

As of today, XRP sits at approximately $1.44 — holding above its 20-day EMA and inside a narrow $1.35–$1.47 range that’s been in place for two weeks. The RSI on the daily chart is hovering near 48 (neutral territory). The MACD histogram has flipped barely positive for the first time since February — not a buy signal yet, but the first sign that bearish momentum is fading.

What’s genuinely interesting is the Bollinger Band squeeze forming on the 4-hour chart. When bands compress this tight, a violent move — in either direction — typically follows within 5–7 days. Volume has been thin, which suggests the market is waiting for a catalyst rather than committing on its own.

Key Price Levels at a Glance

Chart Pattern: Descending Channel + Bollinger Squeeze

What the pattern looks like

Since hitting $3.50 in late 2025, XRP has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows within a well-defined descending channel. The channel top has rejected every rally attempt — bears have been completely in control on the weekly timeframe.

However, the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are now compressing to their tightest range in 60 days. Historically, this squeeze pattern on XRP resolves with a 15–25% directional move. The question is which way.

The setup to watch

The Bullish Case for XRP in 2026

Fundamentals haven’t disappeared — they’ve actually strengthened while the price has corrected. Here’s what’s working in XRP’s favour:

• XRPL transaction volumes are up over 40% from Q4 2025 baselines — real usage, not hype
• The Ripple-Mastercard partnership (announced February 2026) validates XRP’s institutional payment rails narrative
• Weekly ETF inflows have stayed above $33M even during this correction — big money is quietly accumulating
• Seasonality: March has delivered an average 18% return for XRP over the past 12 years (CryptoRank data)
• Standard Chartered’s 2026 price target for XRP remains $8 — implying 455% upside from current levels

If XRP breaks the descending channel with conviction, the first measured target sits at $1.67 (where 1.85 billion XRP changed hands in early 2026 — a big overhead supply zone). A clean break through there opens the door to $2.02 and beyond.

The Bearish Scenario You Cannot Ignore

The $1.35 level is the last meaningful defense before a drop into $1.10–$1.00 territory. Bitcoin is still trading in a downtrend at approximately $71K, and XRP’s correlation with BTC remains above 0.85. If Bitcoin breaks its $70,500 support, XRP will likely test $1.26–$1.27 within hours.

The descending channel has now rejected five separate rally attempts since January. Every time buyers pushed toward the upper channel boundary, sellers appeared. Until that pattern changes, bulls have not proven anything on the weekly chart.

XRP Price Prediction 2026: Three Scenarios

The base case remains the most probable outcome unless a macro catalyst (Bitcoin breakout, major ETF approval, or Ripple partnership expansion) accelerates the timeline. Our 12-month forecast sits at $2.00–$2.40 with a caveat: if $1.35 breaks, reset expectations and wait for $1.00 to hold before re-evaluating.

On-Chain Data: What the Whales Are Doing

On-chain data from Glassnode and March 10 exchange flow reports show approximately $738M worth of XRP withdrawn from major exchanges in a single 24-hour period — one of the largest single-day net outflows recorded for XRP year-to-date in 2026.

Large exchange outflows typically signal accumulation by long-term holders who are moving coins to cold storage. Combined with the institutional ETF inflows, this suggests at least some portion of the smart money is treating the current price range as a buying opportunity rather than preparing to sell.

Our Verdict

XRP is at a genuine inflection point. The descending channel has been dominant for three months, but the Bollinger squeeze, on-chain accumulation signals, and seasonally bullish March backdrop are building a case for a reversal. The fundamentals — rising XRPL volumes, ETF inflows, and Ripple’s expanding payment stack — have not deteriorated.

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